What we are thinking about

1. The Rise of Emerging Markets 

By 2030, emerging economies are projected to contribute over 60% of global industrial production, up from just 20% in 2000.

This transformation is not just about China; India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and others are rapidly expanding their industrial and technological footprints.

Intra-emerging market trade is increasing, often bypassing the U.S. dollar, reflecting a new self-sustaining growth model.

2. Technology and Human Capital Are the New Currency

Innovation is the driving force behind economic dominance.

The U.S. still leads in AI and frontier technologies, but China is closing in fast, accounting for 28% of the world’s top AI talent.

With aggressive investments in science, material technology, and AI, China is positioning itself as a scientific superpower. Meanwhile, emerging economies are leveraging technology to leapfrog traditional development models.

3. The Free Market Is Evolving, Not Dying

While trade barriers rise in some regions, they fall in others. The world’s largest free trade agreement, covering 30% of global GDP, now binds Asia-Pacific nations closer together. Infrastructure projects like the Central Eurasian Corridor and the Pan-Asia high-speed rail network further solidify these new economic ties. The free movement of people, ideas, and goods remains essential for continued growth.

So What?

The future belongs to those who can adapt. Investors, policymakers, and businesses must recognize that economic power is decentralizing.

The challenge for emerging markets is to sustain growth by increasing domestic consumption, especially in China, where consumer spending remains relatively low. However, the biggest uncertainty remains geopolitical stability.

The global economy is entering an era of multi-polarity. For those who understand these shifts, new opportunities abound. For those who ignore them, the risks are greater than ever.